Here are the top three real estate trends economists are predicting for the 2021 summer real estate market:
- Price growth in many markets isn’t going to slow down as competition for homes among buyers and investors (both national and international) increases.
- As people move back for work, urban markets that slowed down during Covid-19 will experience a renewed growth spurt in the summer housing market.
- New construction and lower-than-expected foreclosures will add to the home inventory, but demand still overwhelms supply.
The Coronavirus caused drastic changes in real estate digitization, real estate prices, and the demand for homes. As we approach the summer housing market, which is predominantly the busiest season for real estate agents as it is the time when more families move, this article would consider the trends that real estate investors, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, buyers, and sellers must know.
Mashvisor connected with economists and real estate experts from leading real estate companies and institutions while writing this article to discover the top housing market trends that real estate professionals and consumers should look forward to in the summer. Without further ado, this is what the 2021 summer real estate market is likely to bring:
Summer Real Estate Market Trends 2021
Buyers will face bidding wars and sellers would seize the opportunity to bank more profit
Low inventory continues into summer
In March 2021, according to a report by Realtor.com, there was a 50% decline in new homes inventory compared to the past year.
Here are the factors contributing to low inventory:
1. Steep decrease in days on market. One of the factors contributing to low inventory is the speed at which homes are sold. According to Realtor.com, nationally, the typical home spent 43 days on the market in April 2021, 20 days less than the same time last year. More than 50% of homes for sale go under contract within 2 weeks.
Wolf Richter, economist at WolfStreet.com, in his real estate market forecast, explains:
“The time a home sits on the market waiting for processes to take place has shrunk and, therefore, the inventory of homes for sale on any given day has shrunk, which is shown in the 12 -year decline in inventory for sale in the chart below, but the two-month supply is still very tight.”
2. The new stay at home culture. The pandemic’s stay at home policies created a favorable atmosphere for work from home to thrive. With more and more companies embracing work from home, and with positive metrics on record, we can expect the trend to continue in the future.
In a recent survey by professional network Blind, 64% of workers would rather work from home than take home an extra $30,000 per year. Workers reap benefits that include less commuting time, lower transportation costs, and more time. But this trend also means that people spend more time at home and therefore don’t see the need to sell.
3. Home prices. Home prices appreciated at double-digit rates every week for the 26 weeks leading up to January 2021. This poses a threat to homebuyers looking to sell and buy simultaneously. Joe Manausa, a real estate broker, says that “when supply and demand are balanced, history has shown an annualized appreciation rate of just under 3.5%.” But recent home price appreciation rates in the U.S. far exceed those of a balanced market.
Currently, the Covid-19 vaccine rollout coupled with the ability to capture higher prices will spur more sellers to list their homes. More than two-thirds (69%) of Zillow’s economic panelists said they expect home sales inventory to start growing in the second half of this year or the first half of 2022. Inventory is still well below 2017-2019 levels, and it could take a while for supply to balance demand. What this means is that real estate values will continue to rise.
Bidding wars continue
About 40% of long time home searchers cited getting outbid as the primary reason they haven’t bought a house. This was revealed in a February 2021 survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Another Redfin survey showed that 56% of buyers in January faced bidding wars on their home purchase offers.
Competition is fierce across the country, but worst in Salt Lake City, where 9 out of 10 offers faced competition, according to Redfin’s survey of 24 major markets. It was followed by San Diego (78.9%), the Bay Area (77.1%), Denver (73.9%), and Seattle (73.8%).
Prices are rising faster than the average buyer can afford, but sellers refuse to back down since there is always someone willing to pay that price.
The NAR reports that the national median listing price was $375,000 in April, up 17.2% from last year. Large U.S. metropolitan areas saw year-over-year price increases of 11.6%. These are favorable times for home sellers. The most significant median list price increases in April came from Austin (+40.6%), Los Angeles (+23.6%), and Riverside (+22.0%).
As San Francisco-based real estate broker Kaitlin McLaughlin reports, “People think, ‘if the comps say my house is worth $300 a square foot, I’ll hike the house value by 25 percent because I can—or I think I can,’” McLaughlin says. “That can kill the market fast.”
Our real estate market forecast points to the fact that bidding wars are likely to continue throughout the summer housing market. However, it is your prerogative as a buyer or investor whether or not to take part in a bidding war.
Investors continue to search for the best cities amid intense competition.
Post-Covid19, buyer preference shifted toward homes with more square footage and better landscapes. People’s preferences have also shifted to the upscale suburbs. These include high-end resort areas like Tampa, FL and smaller cities that are riding a wave of tremendous growth, e.g. Austin, TX. The trend shift towards outdoorsy venues would likely be amplified in the summer real estate market.
According to Realtor.com’s real estate market forecast, cities such as Coeur D ‘Alene, Idaho; Springfield, Ohio; and Austin, Texas will experience strong price increases. Based on Mashvisor’s data, here are five real estate markets worth watching in the 2021 summer housing market:
1. Austin, TX
- Median property price: $732,509
- Traditional rental income: $2,000
- Airbnb rental income: $3,905
- Airbnb occupancy rate: 56%
- Airbnb cash on cash return: 2.93%
2. Tampa, FL
- Median property price: $540,297
- Traditional rental income: $2,012
- Airbnb rental income: $2,222
- Airbnb occupancy rate: 53%
- AirBnB cash on cash return: 2.16%
3. Lake Oswego, OR
- Median property price: $1,297,180
- Traditional rental income: $2,929
- Airbnb rental income: $5,068
- Airbnb occupancy rate: 69%
- Airbnb cash on cash return: 2.11%
4. Spokane, WA
- Median property price: $379,870
- Traditional rental income: $1,151
- Airbnb rental income: $2,344
- Airbnb occupancy rate: 62%
- Airbnb cash on cash return: 3.56%
5. Maricopa, AZ
- Median property price: $374,899
- Traditional rental income: $1,515
- Airbnb rental income: 2474
- Airbnb occupancy rate: 62.5%
- Airbnb cash on cash return: 3.74%
While home prices are expected to increase 6.6% on average in 2021, price growth will slow to 4.4% by 2022, according to Freddie Mac’s real estate market forecast. Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, speaking about Zillow’s House Price Expectancy Survey, said:
“This is the most optimistic short-term outlook for house prices that we’ve seen from our experts since the early stages of the post-crash recovery, and the panel’s five-year median annual house price forecast has never been more optimistic. Following last year’s heady home equity gains, these new projections indicate that the aggregate value of homes nationwide will increase by another $2 trillion in 2021”.
Along the same lines, Reuter’s recent survey of nearly 40 real estate analysts forecasts that the US Case-Shiller House Price Index will rise 5.7% in 2021 and another 4.6% in 2022, the highest forecast from analysts.
The Case-Shiller Index compares the selling price of a house in the current month to the selling price of the same house in the past. With this “sales pairs method”, you can track the amount of money it takes to purchase the same home over time. The methodology covers home improvements as well. Thus, the index is the most appropriate measure of house price inflation in the United States.
The short term rental market is also undergoing rapid growth despite calls for regulation. Statista forecasted that revenue in the vacation rentals segment will reach $15,338 million in 2021.
Record high prices continue into summer plus housing recovery in some urban markets that previously slumped
Millennial home buyers and the WFH trend
Record low mortgage rates coupled with an influx of millennial homebuyers has kept the housing market at its best. Ironically, mortgage rates have steadily increased in 2021, but homebuyer demand remains strong. In fact, millennials are more interested in buying a home now than ever.
With the prevalence of working from home, they are now more interested in smaller cities within commuting distance of larger ones. Working from home also encourages moves into second home markets. In this case, people are moving primarily for lifestyle goals rather than necessity.
Yet some companies that aren’t too enthused about work from home will require workers to resume office work either completely or partially through hybrid arrangements. This will result in a significant increase in urban migration. Below are the hottest real estate markets in March 2021 based on Realtor’s market hotness index.
“For many millennials, last year provided an opportunity to save… Yes, the market is tough, but many young people remain committed to buying a home,”
Says George Ratiu, chief economist at Realtor.com.
The State Of The Nation’s Housing report, from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, notes that there has been strong growth within the millennial demographic. The Census Bureau’s most recent population estimates point to strong growth in the number of 30- to 44-year-olds, the age group most likely to buy homes. In fact, adults in this age range accounted for half of the total population growth between 2018 and 2019.
Here are some things to know about millennial housing preferences:
- According to 34% of millennials, garages are not necessary.
- Millennials are interested in home automation. 63% of respondents to a VentureBeat survey say they want smart home security, 64% want smart lighting, and 56% want safety devices like carbon monoxide detectors and nightlights.
- Multifunctional spaces. Home offices that serve multiple purposes have become more popular. People are also trying out innovative uses for outdoor space.
- Outdoorsy locations. Contrary to popular opinion, older millennials are less likely to enjoy urban life compared to outdoorsy and spacious suburbs.
- A projected 20 million millennial households will be formed by 2025.
Demand from this age group (born between 1981 and 1994), many of whom are prospective first time buyers, will keep pushing prices up.
New home construction is increasing, but material costs, labor, and interest rates limit speed
Given the influx of demand plus low mortgages, the stage is set for a new home construction boom. However, this is easier said than done.
According to Reuters, “The construction of single-family homes, the largest part of the housing market , fell 13.4% to a rate of 1.087 million units in April, falling further below the 14-plus-year high in December, a sign that builders may be slowing down due to more expensive materials and lack of manpower.
Building permits for single-family homes fell 3.8% to a rate of 1.149 million units. The number of housing units authorized to be built but not started increased 5.0% to a rate of 232,000 at the end of April, the highest since the government began tracking the series in January 1999. “
1.88 million building permits were issued in January 2021, the highest level since June 2006, but most of them have not started or are in the early stages of construction. Challenges facing companies in the new construction market include:
- Difficulty finding and retaining skilled and unskilled labor.
- Rising cost of lumber and other building materials. Lumber prices rose 89.7% year-over-year in April. Lumber price inflation alone adds $36,000 to the cost of new construction homes.
- High tariffs on steel imports.
- Difficulty in securing cheap land.
Although the summer weather is fair game for new home construction and our real estate market forecast points to increased builder activity, the above challenges will hinder faster home completions. This means that the inventory problem will still persist.
Lumber prices dropped 22% on May 10, with the July lumber contract closing. Whether or not we’ll see the cost of building materials continue to drop is yet to be seen. This draws fresh debates around the fact that the housing prices inflation might be transitory.
As Nancy Lazar of Cornerstone Macro points out:
“The housing/timber pattern is an example of what we will generally see in the future as the economy reopens and supply chains normalize. With the outbreak subsiding, production can resume, creating supply to meet demand and lower prices. Does lumber make the case that many price surges are indeed ‘transitory,’ and largely a function of short term supply/demand imbalances? We think so.”
Overall, challenges in securing affordable land and the rising cost of building materials are having a boomerang effect on housing affordability. However, NAHB revealed that homebuilder sentiment (HMI index) is up to 90, but the 6-month outlook has it sinking toward 80.
Rent becomes more desirable vs buying in many markets, aided by WFH trend
In many housing markets, house value appreciation has outpaced rental price growth. Historically, buying has been more cost-friendly than renting, but that may be changing. An analysis by the Greater Boston Association of Realtors reveals that single-family home prices climbed 18% in the Boston metro area over the past year, substantially faster than rents. Rent increases have been reported in 91 out of the top 100 housing markets over the past year, but annual rent growth is constant at 2.3% nationwide.
Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders), agrees with this:
“I think for-sale housing demand is being supported by WFH, not rental. But rental demand is rolling back. Wages will rise with productivity. What the housing market can yield is an efficiency gain by allowing people to locate to lower cost, lower density markets.”
Rental prices are stable but have increased relatively modestly, allowing for a small cushion as buying becomes more expensive. Based on a real estate trends report from the real estate market forecast team at Realtor.com, buying outpaces renting in 15 of the country’s 50 metro areas, while renting is comparatively profitable in the others. One advantage of rental prices rising at a slower rate compared to home prices is that renters have time to save.
Kim Reidy, Director of Relocation and senior agent at Seattle Rental Group, the rental arm of brokerage Pointe3 Real Estate, says landlords in the Seattle area report receiving 50 to 100 emails from interested tenants within 24 hours of listing a single-family home for rent online. She also said she has been in contact with more than 1,000 people looking to move into rentals in Seattle by the end of August, which is a sign that there could be renewed interest in the major cities’ urban core as the weather warms up. “I think we’ll see that kind of crazy demand throughout the rest of the year,” Reidy says.
Easy monetary policy and desire for more living space keeps driving demand
Easy monetary policy still favors the housing market
The Fed’s attempt to boost economic growth by cutting rates in 2020 was successful as it helped fuel an economic recovery largely driven by housing. Mortgage rates in early 2021 were at record lows. You could lock in a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an astonishing 2.65% rate. But as the economy recovers from the effects of Covid-19, and unemployment rates decline, the housing market forecast is that mortgage rates will rise. The mortgage interest rates forecast is that rates will continue to hover around 3.2%, which is still lower than pre-pandemic rates.
See our Coronavirus housing market predictions.
Bankrate’s national survey of lenders revealed that the benchmark 30-year mortgage averaged 3.20% at the end of April – the lowest mark since early March. The Mortgage Reports estimate that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage will average around 3.31% throughout 2021. Although there was a surprisingly steady drop in April, experts believe this might be a one-off thing. So don’t expect mortgage rates to drop in the summer months.
“Investors realize that inflation will not be an issue in 2021 and will not cause the Fed to reevaluate its low rate approach anytime soon,”
Says Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors.
By the end of the year, mortgage rates will likely rise to 3.7% as the economy improves and more restrictions are lifted. This would push some buyers out of the market, putting a bit less pressure on inventory.
Need for space
During the pandemic, homeowners realized the importance of office space as working from home became normal. Additionally, they needed space for indoor gyms, home classrooms, and outdoor gatherings. Properties that fit the space criteria are generally priced well above the average buyer’s range in large cities. As a result, they moved to suburbs closer to big cities and to comparatively cheaper vacation hotspots where they could both achieve their lifestyle goals and meet their space requirements.
Demand increases further in summer as restrictions eases and people return to work and hybrid work
Positive consumer confidence
Efficient rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations will allow states to ease business and travel restrictions, as such, our real estate market forecast points to more summer activity. According to Freddie Mac, “Housing market confidence fluctuated between 48% (April) and 69% (October), but remained high overall, averaging 60% throughout 2020. As of February 2021, confidence has improved to 66%.”.
While work from home has become the norm in some organizations large and small, it has yet to be widely adopted. Other companies are experimenting with hybrid work, where people could work primarily from home but have to come in 1-2 days a week. There have also been changes to office space designs to support these changes, with traditional offices being more like coworking spaces.
Roughly 21% of employed people currently work from home. We might see a slight drop in this number as offices reopen and travel restrictions are lifted. A significant number of people would move back to large cities.
However, based on the market trends, the real estate market forecast for consumer confidence is positive. Consumer confidence will continue to rise going forward boosted by some of these Covid real estate projections: The decline in unemployment rates, accelerated rate of vaccinations, and the possibility of more financial support via stimulus checks.
Airbnb rental occupancy rates recovery
In January, Mashvisor’s Airbnb Market Forecast, which examined historical data on Airbnb occupancy rates and daily rates across 169 cities, found that it will take until September 2021 for Airbnb occupancy rates to recover in the United States.
Summer vacation rentals are currently in high demand. There are perfect conditions for that much-needed vacation and the timing is right. The kids are on break; companies are embracing remote and hybrid work; and remote working tools have improved. This gives workers a chance to do their jobs while on vacation in their favorite places without getting laid off.
With the lifting of travel restrictions as one-third of the U.S. population has been vaccinated, there has been a surge in short-term rental bookings.
Last year, Airbnb found that 60% of people booking longer-term stays were working or studying while there. Also, online reservation giant Booking Holdings, which owns Kayak, Booking, Priceline, and OpenTable, said it has seen an increase in travel reservations and expects it to continue for the summer. Mashvisor’s real estate market forecast points to an average Airbnb occupancy rate of 61.1% by September.
International buyers return to the market, prices rise further
We will likely see a mild wave of property pressure from international buyers when international travel bans become more lenient, probably towards the end of summer. In today’s market, all-cash offers stand out and even with international travel bans, digitization makes buying sight unseen real estate possible.
With cash in hand, the international buyer will put more pressure on the market. Also, our real estate market forecast is that they probably won’t be focusing on large markets like San Francisco but the developing suburbs. Consequently, more first time buyers would be priced out of their dream homes. According to Realtor, here are 10 markets where cash offers rule:
Source: Realtor.com
Strong economic recovery in summer, declining affordability fosters increase in wages
U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3%. The summer is likely to continue the economic recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jobs have also grown
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The current unemployment rate has fallen from 14.7 percent in April to 6.2 percent in February 2021. This means the current rate is only slightly higher than the 30-year average, but about 80 percent higher than the pre-pandemic rate of only 3.5 percent.”
But as the economy recovers, housing affordability continues to take a hit, leading to rising wages, which is a sign of inflation. Average hourly earnings rose 0.7% in April from March, as companies large and small struggle to find workers.
Real estate broker Joe Manausa says,
“Ultimately, I think we will see the housing market move to a point where demand strengthens, but the ability to meet that demand will diminish because the cost of new homes will not fall within the budgets of a large portion of the buyer pool. This will put more pressure on wages and I think we should prepare to experience a period of elevated inflation in the United States.”
Foreclosures will free up some homes for sale but fewer than expected as home equity is strong
Black Knight reported that nearly 3.6 million 90-day defaults occurred in 2020, the highest number since 2009. 2.1 million homeowners are currently seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments, and as 600,000 forbearance plans expired in March, it will create 1.5 millions of more serious delinquencies. As of February, there were above 2.7 million homeowners in active forbearance plans. 12% of borrowers are now in forbearance.
Rent moratoriums, eviction, and foreclosure bans will expire in June. Additionally, as the forbearance terms expire, we could see some 500,000 homes enter the market through distressed homeowners. However, the situation would be very different from the crisis of 2008, when houses were plentiful on the market and foreclosed houses were undesirable.
As of December 2020, U.S. homeowners with mortgages saw their equity increase by a total of nearly $1.5 trillion, a 16.2% year-over-year increase, according to the latest CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Report. The analysis found that the average annual equity gain was $26,300 per owner, the highest average equity gain since the third quarter of 2013.
With low inventory, distressed homeowners and investors can sell their homes, pay off their mortgages, and still make substantial profits. And the summer real estate market forecast points to the current bidding war situation probably resulting in more offers for distressed inventory entering the market.
Wolf Richter of WolfStreet.com says, “While 17.4 million people are still claiming some form of state or federal unemployment compensation, as the delinquency rate on FHA-insured mortgages hit a record 17.5% and 2.3 million mortgages are still in default, the beneficiaries of the Fed’s monetary policies are treating homes as leveraged investment vehicles with huge returns on equity.”
Will real estate prices keep increasing in the summer housing market? Why?
The Covid-19 pandemic created a lot of pent-up demand, and people re-assessed their lifestyle choices. Generally, real estate prices are affected by demand and supply. When there is high demand and low supply, prices rise; people compete for available homes, leading to bidding wars. When supply outweighs demand, then we have a buyer’s market, where homes will stay long on the market and prices will need to be reduced to attract buyers.
Currently, the U.S. housing market 2021 inventory is low, while demand is high, fueled by low mortgage rates and a thriving job market. This is a seller’s market where people who were previously indecisive about buying homes are vying for homes with vacation home buyers and investors.
Will home prices move up or down in summer?
The housing market trends point toward an upwards movement in home prices as the summer housing market is a seller’s market. Even landlords are increasing rent, taking advantage of the bidding war situation. It’s similar to the upwards movement of prices in 2003 that led to the housing market crash of 2008. While there might not be a housing market crisis similar to the 2008 housing market crash, there is still a housing affordability crisis that needs to be addressed.
Will there be a housing crash in 2021?
Some experts compare this time in housing to the 2005-2007 housing bubble, which led to a major market correction and the 2008 housing crisis. According to Wikipedia:
“A housing bubble is characterized by rapid and sustained increases in the price of real estate, such as housing usually due to some combination of over-confidence and emotion, fraud, the synthetic offloading of risk using mortgage-backed securities, the ability to repackage conforming debt via government-sponsored enterprises, public and central bank policy availability of credit, and speculation”.
Yet there are major similarities and differences between the 2008 housing market and the 2020 real estate market:
Similarities
- The housing market is booming. In 2005-2007, double-digit price appreciations were recorded, similar to what started in the third quarter of 2020.
Differences
- While there was a glut in supply during the last housing bubble, there is an acute shortage in supply currently.
- The rampant lending practices of the 2006-2008 housing crisis are not being replicated. In fact, lending terms are stricter.
- New households are being created by millennials, and there’s strong housing demand from this age group.
- While millions of homes were foreclosed upon during the last housing crisis, homeowners today have enough equity in their homes to withstand foreclosures.
Senior advisor for Motley Fool’s MillionAcres, Matt Argesinger, says:
“In many cases banks require higher down payments. Gone are the days of liar loans, Alt-A mortgages, high-rise loans. They are still out there to some extent, but they are not as prevalent as they were in the years 2004, 2005, 2006. There is much more value, so to speak, in homes. So I think there is a great cushion against any real estate crisis or crisis that could lead to what we saw in 2008”.
Hence, fears of a housing market crash in 2021 propagated by some housing market news are unfounded since price appreciation is predicted to continue for the next five years (albeit at a slower pace). In the future, if inventory meets demand, there is a possibility of a housing market crash, but not yet. At this point, there are no signs of a stall.
Will the housing market crash in 2022?
Experts believe home prices will drop in 2022. Obviously, the upward trend in home prices can’t continue forever. According to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac predictions, mortgage originations will drop from $4.5 trillion in 2020 to just under $4 trillion this year and to just under 3 trillion in 2022. But this hints at a slowdown, it’s not necessarily a housing market crash.
Noah Rosenblatt of UrbanDigs believes that without a random hike in mortgage rates, the worst that would happen is that the housing market would gradually cool down.
“First, the bids drop, and then, at a lag, the sellers adapt and lower their prices,” he says.
Annual home price growth, which is currently in the double digits, is expected to decelerate to 2.9% in 2022, as measured by the FHFA Home price index.
“As the economy continues to improve, we expect conditions to remain generally favorable for the housing and mortgage market,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said. “Higher mortgage rates have the potential, however, to dampen the robust demand we’ve been experiencing, and we therefore forecast total originations to decline to $3.5 trillion in 2021.”
When is the best time to sell real estate in 2021?
Summer seems like the best time to sell real estate since the inventory of homes is still currently low and home prices are expected to keep growing at strong rates in the summer real estate market.
Should I buy a house or investment property in 2021 or wait?
As a real estate investor or first time buyer, one of the fears arising from the state of the 2021 housing market is “Wouldn’t I be paying too much for that house, second home, or fixer upper in 2021?” Is now a good time to buy a house? Yes, because mortgage rates are still at historic lows, but they’d rise in the near future.
There are a lot of would-be buyers and investors who have been discouraged because of bidding wars and high prices. Since experts predict home appreciation rates will slow down in 2022, it may be wise to wait until then to buy. However, buying now might also mean you may be able to take advantage of home value appreciation right now, which puts you in a good position. It also means you can lock down mortgages at friendly rates since mortgages are bound to increase going forward.
Daniela Andreevska, Mashvisor’s Marketing Director, explains:
“Real estate investing has never been more profitable than it is right now. Despite the current market challenges, do not wait too long since both mortgage rates and property prices are likely to continue rising. So make sure to lock a deal before it’s too late. If anything, the crisis induced by the Covid-19 pandemic showed the resilience of real estate as an investment strategy as well as the steadfastness of the current U.S. housing market”.
However, you might need to scale up your home purchase budget. At the same time, you want to set a threshold on how far it goes and know when to walk away from a deal. So these are our summer housing market predictions 2021, let’s hear your thoughts in the comments.
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